Finding the best NHL betting opportunities can mean the difference between cashing in and throwing your money away.
Whether you’re just dipping your toes into hockey betting or already familiar with the ins and outs, this blog will walk you through how to identify opportunities with underdogs and favorites.
We’ll cover how NHL odds work and how sportsbooks calculate spreads so you can make smarter bets.
Favorites vs. Underdogs—What They Mean in NHL Betting
Favorites are the teams expected to win the game. Their odds are typically marked with a minus sign (-), which indicates how much you need to wager to win $100.
On the other hand, underdogs are teams that sportsbooks predict have a lower chance of winning. Their odds are marked with a plus sign (+), which shows how much you’ll win for every $100 wagered.
And in hockey, there’s the unique “puck line”, which is a version of the point spread you see in other sports. When you bet on the favorite with the puck line, that team has to win by at least the listed margin (typically 1.5 goals). If you bet on the underdog, they must either win the game outright or not lose by more than the margin.
Example of NHL Odds
Here’s how it looks with a real-world example:
Toronto Maple Leafs (-1.5) vs. New York Rangers (+1.5).
- Betting on the Leafs? They need to win by 2 or more goals to cover the spread.
- Backing the Rangers? They can either win the game or lose by just 1 goal, and you still win.
If the final score lands precisely on the spread (say there’s a spread of 2.0 and Toronto wins by exactly 2 goals), then it’s a push, and your money gets refunded. Pretty straightforward, right?
When to Bet on Favorites
Backing the favorite can feel like a safe bet, but it’s not always the most profitable strategy. The payout might not justify the risk if the team is heavily favored (like -250 or worse).
Some good times to bet on favorites:
- Home-Ice Advantage: Favorites playing at home statistically perform better, with the added boost from the crowd and the comfort of familiarity.
- Dominant Matchups: If a powerful offensive team is up against a struggling defense, favorites are more likely to win by a significant margin and cover the puck line.
- Hot Streaks: Is the favorite riding a win streak? If their proven momentum is colliding with an opponent in a slump, this could be a solid bet.
When to Back the Underdogs
Everyone loves a Cinderella story—especially when it means a surprise win and a big payout. But betting on NHL underdogs smartly takes some insight into the league and the current matchups.
Here’s when underdog bets can shine:
- Tight Matchups: When two evenly matched teams face off, the underdog may have better odds than the favorite for those willing to take the risk.
- Road Warriors: Some NHL teams actually perform better on the road! So, a solid underdog team with a high away record is worth a closer look.
- Trap Games: Sometimes, a top team underestimates a scrappy underdog, especially if the top team is fatigued from recent games or traveling. This is where surprises happen—and so do big payouts.
How Sportsbooks Set NHL Odds
NHL odds are based on statistics, historical performance, injuries, and sometimes just plain gut feelings from the bookies. Sportsbooks like FanDuel Sportsbook are using advanced algorithms and real-time data to predict outcomes as accurately as possible.
Reading NHL Odds
Here’s how to interpret NHL odds on popular sportsbooks:
- Moneyline bets are straightforward—just pick who will win the game.
- The puck line throws in a spread of 1.5 goals, often evening out the betting odds between favorites and underdogs.
- Over/under bets focus on the total goals scored in the game (by both teams). This is where research into goalie stats and offensive form comes in handy.
Strategies for Making Smarter NHL Bets
If you’re looking to level up your betting game (and your bankroll), keep these strategies in mind:
Do Your Homework
Research NHL team stats, recent performances, injuries, and starting goalies. NHL odds shift based on these factors, so staying updated gives you an edge.
Look at Recent Head-to-Heads
Some teams just have the other’s number. If an underdog has consistently beaten a favorite in recent matchups, it’s worth considering backing the dog.
Check Travel and Fatigue
Long road trips can wear down any team, especially when playing back-to-back games. This puts even strong favorites in a tricky spot.
Avoid Betting with Your Heart
We understand that you’re loyal to your team. However, emotions and betting don’t mix. Instead, stick to the stats and be objective.
Wrapping it Up
Whether you’re backing the favorite with steady confidence or taking a swing on a high-value underdog, the key is to bet smart.
You can stay ahead of the curve by keeping an eye on injuries, stats, and team trends.
